We’re just hours away from the third game of the 2012 NLCS; who’s excited?! I sure am, as I’ll be in attendance this afternoon as Spencer handles live blogging duties. We’ll switch things up Friday, as Spencer will be in St. Louis for game five while I take over here StanGraphs. That’s right; when it comes to playoff baseball, we have it covered from all angles. Now that I’m all done plugging and bragging, let’s get down to business. Giants manager Bruce Bochy made an announcement that he’ll go with Tim Lincecum in game four after previously relegating the two-time Cy Young award winner to bullpen work. Is he making the right decision?
Little Timmy, after a superb start to his career, hit quite a roadblock in 2012. Armed with mind-blowing strikeout rates and the aforementioned hardware, there was no reason to believe Lincecum would bomb this badly over the course of a full season. How bad was Lincecum? Pretty bad, but maybe not as horrific as you think. The diminutive Giants starter did put up a vile 5.18 ERA over 186 innings, but his predictive metrics suggest he was better than that. With a 4.18 FIP and 3.82 xFIP, The Freak was hardly the worst pitcher in his own rotation, let alone in the National League. It’s a little silly for Bochy to have gotten so caught up in how many team games the Giants have won when feeble Barry Zito takes the hill; this unpredictable and diminished version of Tim Lincecum is still the better pitcher.
It’s been a rough year for Tim Lincecum, but I feel like there must be some medicinal answer to his struggles…
Lincecum has also maintained his ability to miss bats, as his 2012 strikeout rate of 9.19/9 was actually better than his 2011 figure and not terribly far off his career rate. Lincecum also had plenty of bad luck with stranding runners, as his below-average 67.8% LOB rate is a big indicator of bad luck. The long-haired starter also got hit harder than normal (.309 BABIP, 1.11 HR/9) and had a lower ground ball rate than he’s become accustomed to. If there’s anything really worth knocking Lincecum for, it’s that 4.35/9 walk rate. With the exception of his otherworldly 2009 campaign, Lincecum has always lived a bit on the high end of the acceptable walk rate range, and this was the season he finally let things slide too far. I guess what I’m trying to say is that Tim Lincecum’s 2012 was well off the pace you’d expect from Tim Lincecum, but there’s no reason to think he isn’t better than some of the other options Bochy has at his disposal.
It’s pretty understandable that Bochy has now become deathly afraid that the formidable Cardinal lineup will tee off on Zito, and I have to think that’s a big reason he announced the change for game four. Zito’s stuff is fairly laughable at this point, and even this version of Lincecum is capable of dominance at any given point. That brings to mind another question: if Bochy realizes that Barry Zito is likely to get shelled against the better lineups in the league, why on earth is he starting any postseason games that he doesn’t have to?
Small sample sizes don’t matter much (we just love throwing that caveat around as often as we can), but it’s worth noting that Zito somehow tossed 6 2/3 very solid innings in his only start against the Cardinals in 2012. That sort of figures, as being a Cardinal fan in 2012 always seems to involve witnessing some bizarre offensive slumps against perpetrators one wouldn’t suspect. As for Lincecum, he hasn’t faced the Cardinals all season. If Lincecum manages to keep his control lapses to a minimum, he could give the St. Louis offense fits and prove an even match for the much more dependable Adam Wainwright.
Maybe Lincecum will tap into the version of himself that baffled opposing hitters, won Cy Young awards, and induced countless weed jokes. Maybe he’ll throw four or five balls to the backstop and lose a couple of pitches to the fans in the left field stands. There’s no surefire way to know what version of the Giant pitcher we’ll see this Thursday, but I’d still bet on his success before I’d hitch my wagon to Barry Zito’s long-dead star. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I agree with Bruce Bochy. Or, more true to form, I should say that I agree with his decision to correct his own previous mistake.